Looking Ahead Week: March Weather

This week is "Looking Ahead Week" here on Acorn Place, and the goal is to lay out a plan at least for the beginning of spring - the next couple of months - as far as what I plan to do in the yard and in the garden.  The first step, of course, is figuring out when I'll actually be able to get outside and get some yard work done.  I went back over March high temperatures at the Cornell weather station since 1995.  The graph above shows the high temperature from March 1 - March 31 each year.  The red line is the average of all the years, and each other line shows one particular year, labeled in the legend.  You can see that the month usually starts off with highs in the 30s, and highs reach above 40 consistently beginning in the middle third of the month, starting around the 11th.  By the end of March, highs are usually right around 50 in the Ithaca area.  It looks like in many years, there's often a little warm stretch between March 5-18, followed by a short cool spell right around the vernal equinox (March 20 or 21 depending on the year), and then a warm-up right near the end of the month.  Last year, 2012, was a major exception, with over half the month experiencing highs over 60 degrees and a record-warm week with multiple daily record highs from the 17th to the 24th.

Right now, the ground is covered by a few inches of snow, and we've been consistently getting up to a half-inch of new snow a day recently.  The forecast for the coming week is for temperatures to rise from a high high in the upper 20s today to a high around 45 by Saturday...I think Saturday might be the earliest I'll be able to get anything done outside.


I've also taken a look at the longer term forecast, which is released by the Climate Prediction Center.  Shown above is the 8-14 day temperature outlook, good from March 11-17: next week.  It shows that here in Freeville, we're on the edge of the area where there's a chance of above-normal temperatures next week.  I haven't shown the precipitation outlook (you can see it here), but the expectation is for a 40% chance of above-normal precip next week.



I've also taken a look at the 30-day outlook for the whole month of March, and both temperatures and precipitation have equal chances of being above-normal, normal, or below-normal.  What does this mean for me and my yard?  Well, it looks like the snow cover should be gone by sometime next week, and I'll have to pick and choose my days to get outside between now and the end of the month.  Right around the end of the month, though, it should be nearly warm (and light!) enough for me to get outside just about every day, and the lawn might be due for a little trim.

Tomorrow, Looking Ahead Week continues.  March is definitely too early to plant any seeds - maybe some bulbs - but it will be a great month to round up some of the eyesore around the yard...both human refuse and dead stuff.